THE MARKET IS STATUS QUO
By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics ………
Its hard to have a really robust market place when 2 major auctions with tens of millions of dollars worth of coins are staring at you knowing another biggie is only two weeks away. There are probably several hundred (the very least) bigger collectors who have held off buying in anticipation of these sales. That has been the trend for the past year or so. Activity usually slows as soon as the catalogs are sent out (expcept in the case of Pogue-the mere announcement sent people into a tizzy). The good news, because there can only be one winning bidder per lot, the majority of collectors who saved up-end up not buying the coins they want (or spending what they figured). Last Gardner sale the 2 weeks after were a dealers delight with strong sales (at least for us). Same thing usually happens around FUN.
Right now the market is very selective. NOTHING has changed in terms of prices for FRESH, EYE APPEALING, SUPERB coins. Buying a coin out of an auction in May-even if it is fresh, does not qualify a coin as fresh if you need to sell it in October. Generally a “fresh”coin is one that has been off the market for MANY Years. We have recently seen a few people try to sell coins for profits they bought within the past year with little to no success. In fact, in some areas, they were offered 20% BELOW what they paid. Unless you need cash, you must always remember the rare coin market is a long term propostion. Plus, its also a huge matter of what you buy. “Stuff” is not what makes you quick money.
Generic and semi generic gold are still reeling. This past week we sold only ONE MS66 Saint. We expect that to change dramatically shortly. Not because gold is inching up. Collectors are recognizing each day now that prices of these coins have slipped too low. Plus, this past week we spoke to 3 bigger Wall Street types who want to buy gold. These guys are usually ahead of the curve and sense future trends. We do take their wantng gold as one step in that market returning. If you like gold, now is the time to buy-especially the semi-generic coins (they could have the biggest pop up in price)!
Our biggest problem right now-still finding coins for our Want Lists. If we had estimate it-more then half of what we need is rare gold. Rare gold coins like a $10 1911D PCGS MS65 CAC is a far different animal than a 1910D PCGS MS65. While the 10D has dropped a little in price, the 11D in MS65 only has become even more valueable. When were spreading the word over the last two months about the fact we needed better coins-it was painful to have to deal with people offering us everything that wasn’t-while thinking what they had was premium value items. We know the majority of great coins are parked some where deep in the “blackhole” of the numismatic straosphere. Can’t remember the last time we had a group of choice to GEM Bust coins offered to us or something we are really starved for GEM DMPL’s Morgans. There is certainly NO weakness for any nice coin from those series!
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