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The Coin Analyst: 2014 Kennedy Silver Set Sales by US Mint at 85,670 in first 12 hours

golino The Coin Analyst: Kennedy Half Dollar 50th Anniversary Silver Set Mintage Limited to 300,000by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

The launch of the 2014 four-coin Kennedy half dollar 50th anniversary set on October 28 went much more smoothly than most people had expected it to go. Some buyers encountered minor issues when placing orders, but the vast majority said the process was much quicker and easier than it had been during any other major product launch. Many said it took just a minute or less.

The Mint, which announced on October 29 that during the first twelve hours of sales 85,670 sets were sold online and through phone operations, or 28.5% of the product limit of 300,000 units, notified numismatic editors that it had received “overwhelmingly positive reaction by our customers regarding our new online catalog and order management system. We’ve always expressed our dedication to customer service, and the new e-Commerce website’s performance during one of the year’s most highly anticipated product launches is proof of that commitment.”

The Mint, which is one the country’s top 100 online retailers, also provided some other statistics from opening day: “As of 12:10 p.m., the site processed at 14 orders per second. By day’s end the number peaked to 24.9 orders per second.

  • By 12:30 p.m., the system processed approximately $3.6 million in sales and 36 thousand units sold.
  • From noon to midnight yesterday (October 28), sales of the Kennedy set totaled 85,670 units.
  • Between 12:00 p.m. – 1:00p.m., the online catalog handled more than 272,000 page views.
  • As of 8:30 p.m., approximately 14,000 orders had been shipped from the distribution center.”

It was especially noteworthy that:

1.) the new site could clearly handle high-volume traffic much better than the Mint’s previous retail site and

2.) that for the first time ever to my knowledge orders began shipping within hours of being received.

In fact, even buyers who selected budget shipping had their orders shipped the same day in many cases, and if they purchased three or more sets their orders were upgraded for free to 2-day UPS delivery.

2014-D Kennedy Silver Half Dollar
2014-D Kennedy Silver Half Dollar

For those buyers and especially dealers interested in having sets graded this means no headaches as in the past about whether the coins will arrive in time for first strike and early release eligibility. Given the fact that it will cost individual submitters approximately $200 per set to have them graded after including all fees and shipping costs, and that one is gambling on grades especially since most people are unable to distinguish a 69 from a 70 even with magnification, I personally would recommend buying an already graded set rather than playing the submission game in this case.

I contacted the Mint’s Michael White in the Office of Public Affairs regarding the last minute decision to announce a 300,000 product limit for this set last week. He explained that Mint officials felt this was important because this is a high-demand product and that the specific number was based on “the amount of material available” and the Mint’s product schedule for other coins to be released before year’s end. As far as the nomenclature of product rather than mintage limit, I asked if this meant the Mint could issue the same coins in another format, and Mr. White said there are no plans to do that.

With respect to glitches encountered by buyers when ordering on the first day, the most significant one concerned the household limit of five sets. If a buyer broke up an order for five sets into multiple orders, they were told they had reached the limit before they had actually done so. Many buyers reported this on several coin blogs. The problem appears to have been resolved by the second day.

There were also some people who encountered issues depending on the type of browser they use to access the Mint’s site, and some reported having problems agreeing to the terms and conditions during the ordering process.

The number of sets sold was seen by many people as rather disappointing, and it was a smaller number than I expected. Several factors may explain why this happened. One is that knowing 180,000 sets were ready to be shipped some buyers may have decided to wait until after the first day rush to order. Second, there was most likely not much speculative demand for these sets after what happened with the gold half dollars, which a lot of people lost money on.

We will need to see how sales proceed in the coming days and weeks before a lot of conclusions can be drawn. But for now I would first reiterate my long-standing view that all the Kennedy anniversary products are best seen as collectibles to be enjoyed because you like the coins, not as an investment or money maker.

Many people have compared this set to the American silver eagle sets issued in 2012 and 2013. But in my view a more apt comparison in some respects may be the 2006 20th anniversary American silver eagle sets. Those sets had a similar mintage level (250,000), were priced at the same amount ($100), and sold out in about ten days. They also included the first reverse proof silver eagles, and the JFK sets include the first reverse proof and enhanced uncirculated Kennedy halves.

The 2006 sets have done very well. After peaking about six months after release at over $500, they dropped to half that and then settled in at about $350, which is where they remain today. But the modern coin market was less saturated with Mint products at that point, and the economy was stronger.

For those reasons I do not expect the Kennedy sets to perform like the 2006 sets did in the short-term at least.

They may not sell out at all. It is quite possible production will be halted with the initial run of 180,000 units. And if the sets fail to sell even the 180,000 units ready now, that will likely depress values at least for a while. But with time a smaller mintage will support higher values.

Enjoy your coins, and I think if you are patient, down the road you will be happy you purchased an extra set or sets to sell when the moment is right.

But the most important takeaway from the launch in my view is that the Mint got this one right. Just think how much better collecting modern U.S. coins will be in the future if other major product releases go this well.

Louis Golino
Louis Golino
Louis Golino is an award-winning numismatic journalist and writer specializing on modern U.S. and world coins. He has been writing a weekly column for CoinWeek since May 2011 called “The Coin Analyst,” which focuses primarily on modern numismatic issues and developments at major world mints. In August 2015 he received the Numismatic Literary Guild’s (NLG) award for Best Website Column for “The Coin Analyst.” He is also a contributor to Coin World, where he wrote a bimonthly feature and weekly blog, and The Numismatist, the American Numismatic Association’s (ANA) monthly publication, where he writes a monthly column on modern world coins. He is also a founding member of the Modern Coin Forum sponsored by Modern Coin Mart. He previously served as a congressional relations specialist and policy analyst at the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress and as a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international politics and national security for a wide variety of publications. He has been writing professionally since the early 1980s when he began writing op-ed articles and news analyses.

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15 COMMENTS

  1. 2 other points:
    1.) the 2-coin JFK clad set is listed as out of stock. It appears a lot of people buying the silver set picked up clad sets too, but they may have just run out of supplies. It is not as of now listed as sold out. Glad I got my five clads when they came out.
    2.) Broadly speaking:
    We modernists are in too much of a hurry. Price appreciation with coins is a slow process in most cases. The fast money is made elsewhere like Vegas or Wall Street. I think those of us who like modern coins need to chill out and stop worrying so much about what values will be tomorrow. Just my opinion.

    In addition, the Mint’s new order management system may have some interesting implications for the coin market going forward. If we no longer have to fight each other to get the hot new coins, the whole game may change. Any reactions?

  2. had similar problem finding check box for terms & conditions… could just barely see it…. as to production total and the immediate shipping of so many sets might mean more people will be able to submit & have early release labels which could pull prices down…. market might be flooded with them as time goes on…
    and, why are some bidders offering to pay $140+ for the sets on auction sites?? apparently afraid they’ll miss out or are afraid of the U.S. Mint!

    • Thanks, foxman. It seems there are always some people willing to overpay on e-Bay, or perhaps they are so bullish on the sets they wanted more than 5.

  3. Outstanding article, and kudos to the Mint’s website. Whomever the IT Contractor was that built the site deserves a raise. Perhaps the Dept of Health and Human Services could have used their expertise for the rollout of the ACA (sigh)..which begs the obvious question: what did the US Mint pay, vis a vis what HHS paid for its customer service web platforms? I suspect that would be rather revealing..just a question.

  4. Yes we can! When President kennedy announced that we would go to the moon by the end of the decade, many Americans were skeptical. It is only fitting that after much frustration with the Mints launch of popular coin sets in the past, that it has over come all the hurtles with the successful launch of this Kennedy set.
    My order should arrive today.

  5. OK, so here’s something I noticed: On the Mint’s webpage for the Kennedy set, it indicates “Mintage Limit: None; Production Limit: 300,000.” Does this narrative give the Mint an out if they want to increase production?? Anyone out there have a thought on this? Seems odd. If the Production limit is 300,000, then so should the Mintage limit. Where am I wrong?

    • Mike,
      I addressed this above.
      It is extremely unlikely the Mint would make more than 300K because of what they said about how much material they have, the need to prepare for other releases, etc. and especially given the relatively slow start in sales. At this point it seems much more likely they will not make more than the 180K already produced.

  6. Louis

    I like the article about the sales of the 2014 Kennedy Half Set. How can I find out how the sales are going since the first day.

    Thanks, Clay Teague

    • Thanks, Clay. So far the Mint has not released info. on sales since the first day, but it should be coming very soon. Also, on Tuesdays by 5:00pm the Mint posts figures on numismatic sales on its web site.

  7. As of 11/2 the Mint has sold 125,147 sets according to the weekly sales report released yesterday. It seems very unlikely they will produce more than the 180K already made, which could bode well for the long-term but will be a drag on the market in the short-term.

  8. I received 3 sets. One of the Denver unc coins has a distinct shallow pencil point divot between the L’s in “Dollar” on the reverse. It looks like a mint error. Has anyone else seen this defect? now I’m wondering whether to keep this set or return it.

  9. I got my set quickly but the uncirculated coin was obviously damaged, it looked scraped and scarred, I sent my back for an exchange, but they just sent me an email telling me they are just refunding my money. I guess thats their way of telling me to not bother them with requests for proof-quality coins, and if I want to buy from the mint, I have to accept whatever dreck they send out.

    • I to can sympathize with you. I have just received the 5 sets I ordered and will be sending 3 of them back for a refund because of quality issues. Unfortunately the reoccurring problem that the coins in my set seem to have, has to do with the overall surface condition. Especially that of the Enhanced Uncirculated coin (which happens to be my least favorite of the Set)…apparently the lazar finished of 3 of the coins I received, turned up with a milky scratchy like finish on the Kennedy Portrait. And even if I could have overlooked that appearance as just a matter of taste, I definitely could not overlook the random pinholes, nicks and scratches on either of the other coins in the 3 Sets I returned. I did not bother asking to have them exchanged, from what I have been reading in regards the surface quality of the coins in the Kennedy Set; I guess I am lucky to get 2 nice sets out of the 5.

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