Where are Gold and Silver Prices Heading?
A divided Federal Reserve has given gold investors fewer reasons to expect a rate-cut boost in 2026. Meanwhile, silver has gained support from Europe’s growing electric vehicle market. However, investment demand for silver-backed ETFs continues to weaken, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. So, where are gold and silver prices going?
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at its April 29 meeting. The Fed also said the economy continued to expand at a solid pace, while inflation stayed elevated due in part to higher global energy prices.
That decision matters for gold. Lower rates usually help gold because bullion pays no yield. Therefore, a longer pause from the Fed can limit fresh investment demand.
Powell Signals Patience on Rates
Heraeus analysts said the Fed gave markets more clarity after the meeting. In their view, Chair Jerome Powell showed little urgency to cut rates or raise them.
Powell acknowledged that tariffs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift prices. Still, Heraeus said he did not argue for higher interest rates to fight that pressure.
The inflation data supports the Fed’s caution. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.5% year over year in March 2026, up from 2.8% in February.
Even so, the Fed repeated its longer-term goal of 2% inflation. It also said it would monitor inflation pressures, inflation expectations, labor conditions, and financial developments before changing policy.
A Split Fed Complicates the Outlook
The April meeting exposed a divided Fed.
Eight officials voted to hold rates steady. However, Stephen Miran wanted a quarter-point rate cut. At the same time, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan objected to language that kept an easing bias in the statement.
As a result, Heraeus sees little chance that the Fed will deliver a gold-friendly rate cut this year. Reuters also reported that Barclays now expects no Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing high energy prices tied to the Iran war and inflation risks.
Powell also said the neutral rate likely sits somewhere in the 3% to 4% range, according to Reuters. That implies current policy sits close to neutral, although Heraeus said Powell appeared to view it as slightly above neutral.
Warsh Nomination Moves Forward
The Fed leadership picture also continues to shift.
Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15, 2026. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to serve as the next Fed chair on April 29. The nomination now moves to the full Senate.
Meanwhile, the Justice Department dropped its criminal investigation into the Fed’s building renovation project after failing to find evidence of a crime, according to The Washington Post. However, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said the matter could resume if the Fed inspector general finds evidence of wrongdoing.
Newmont Output Falls, but Cash Flow Surges
On the supply side, Heraeus pointed to lower first-quarter gold output from Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner.
Newmont produced about 1.3 million attributable gold ounces in the first quarter of 2026. That marked a decline from 1.54 million ounces a year earlier, according to Reuters.
The company cited site interruptions and the impact of asset sales, including Musselwhite and Cripple Creek & Victor. Still, higher gold prices helped Newmont post strong financial results.
Newmont reported $3.3 billion in net income, $3.1 billion in free cash flow, and $3.8 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter. It also said it remains on track to meet its full-year 2026 production guidance of 5.3 million attributable gold ounces.
Gold ETF Holdings Ease From February Peak
Heraeus said U.S.-based gold ETF holdings have slipped from their late-February peak.
According to the analysts, gold ETF holdings fell 2.1% to 98.8 million ounces from the peak reached on February 27. That leaves holdings almost unchanged from the 98.9 million ounces recorded at the start of the year.
The analysts also said gold ETF holdings have closely tracked the gold price this year. They noted local peaks in late January, late February, and mid-April. They also pointed to a low in late March, shortly after gold marked its weakest daily close on March 26.
Gold Prices Drop Monday
Gold traded lower on Monday.
Kitco’s earlier market update showed gold falling to $4,526.09 per ounce. It later traded at $4,564.49, down 1.07% on the session.
In the updated spot market quote, gold last traded at $4,692.42 per ounce, down 0.37% on the day.
Silver ETFs Continue to Lose Holdings
Silver tells a different story.
Heraeus said silver ETF holdings have fallen more sharply than gold ETF holdings this year. According to the analysts, silver ETF holdings dropped 8.2% to 793.2 million ounces from their January 1 peak of 863.6 million ounces.
They described the trend as a steady decline, with only brief pauses after silver price rallies. However, they also said ETF selling has started to level off since silver hit its lowest close of the year on March 26.
European EV Demand Supports Silver
Industrial demand gives silver stronger support.
Battery electric vehicles captured 19.4% of the EU market in the first quarter of 2026, up from 15.2% one year earlier, according to ACEA. The group also reported 546,937 new BEV registrations in the quarter.
Hybrid-electric vehicles remained the most popular power type. They accounted for 38.6% of the EU market, with 1,089,421 registrations. Plug-in hybrids also grew and reached 9.5% of new registrations, or 268,344 units.
At the same time, petrol and diesel continued to lose share. Combined, they fell to 30.3% of new EU registrations, down from 38.2% in the first quarter of 2025.
Why EVs Matter for Silver
Electric vehicles use more silver than internal combustion engine vehicles. The Silver Institute says battery-electric vehicles use about 67% to 79% more silver than ICE vehicles, with about 25 to 50 grams of silver per EV. That equals roughly 0.8 to 1.6 troy ounces.
Heraeus estimates that EVs can use between one and two ounces of silver per vehicle. The firm also noted that charging infrastructure adds another demand channel. A fast DC charging station can require as much as 50 ounces of silver, depending on the power rating and number of charging ports.
Therefore, Europe’s stronger EV registration numbers could support silver demand even as ETF investors pull back.
Silver Prices Follow Gold Lower
Silver also weakened on Monday.
Kitco’s market data showed silver falling to $72.204 per ounce when gold reached its session low. Spot silver later traded at $73.794 per ounce, down 2.07% on the day.
For now, silver faces two competing forces. Investment demand remains soft. However, electric vehicles and charging networks continue to create long-term industrial demand.
The Bottom Line for Precious Metals Investors
Gold still needs a clearer rate-cut signal from the Fed. Without one, the yellow metal may struggle to attract new momentum from monetary policy.
Silver faces a more mixed setup. ETF demand continues to fall. Still, Europe’s EV market gives the metal a stronger industrial story.
Together, these gold and silver prices trends point to a divided precious metals market. Gold remains tied to Fed policy and inflation. Silver, meanwhile, must balance weak investor appetite against rising demand from electrification.
